I got sucked into reading this paper, and it has completely changed my perception of these scams. They are incredibly thorough and realistic. Here are some quotes that drove this home for me.
"The bond phase showed that scammers had tremendous patience; this phase lasted anywhere from 3 to 11 months before the scammer moved on to the next stage of the scam."
"When I spoke to her on a video call, it was the same person from the photos. She was even wearing the dress that matched a photo she had sent earlier in the day."
“She did not push me to invest, or ask for money. She seemed genuinely interested in me and we
spoke for nearly 6 months before she even brought up
investments; it all seemed so real and organic."
"It seemed legitimate, there was no reason to think that it could be fake – if she could be a scammer, so could any of my actual friends."
"[the site] was similar to what you would expect on an investment portfolio website; in fact, the prices of stocks and bitcoin also matched..."
"According to recent research [23], these scams have resulted in losses of nearly 75 billion dollars since 2020."
Definitely sympathizes the victims even more. I had been thinking that these were 1-2 month, ham-fisted operations: establish contact and rush to grab the cash from the gullible rube. To string along the target for a year shows dedication completely separate from the pedestrian scams you normally encounter.
I never took it so literally. Just thought it was to develop a relationship with a mark and then put the screws to them as soon as possible.
Someone gullible, like a reality show contestant (90 Day Fiancé, Bachelor, etc). A person who can “fall in love” immediately and will do whatever to prove their affection because they believe they have limited alternatives.
A year investment…that is a meaningful (platonic or romantic) time for a relationship, where some sense of obligation/pity to the scammer could develop.
I happened across the "Tinder Swindler" video on Netflix the other day, and I was shocked at how elaborate these scams can get. Always thought I'd catch onto this stuff, but...
Imagine: you meet someone online. You talk for a while, and decide to meet up for dinner. They say nothing, but upon googling them (for safety, of course) you discover they're the son of a billionaire - a weapons or diamonds magnate or something to that effect.
Anyways, the day of the date comes around and a brand new Rolls Royce Phantom comes to pick you up, then drops you off at a private jet. You go to one of the highest end restaurants in the continent. You're experiencing a probably $20,000 night between tips, booze, food, and entertainment. You're showered in expensive gifts over weeks and weeks - honestly, where is all this money coming from, if not his pocket? He's a billionaire! You see him checking into hotels all around Europe, but you mention you miss him so he flies in just to get coffee with you for an hour. He's clearly head-over-heels for you.
tl;dr he has a scheme where he's got some photos of his guard roughed up, and a little blood on the "swindler", which aren't shown until the woman is deeply infatuated with him. It's a very urgent problem - some business competitors are out to get him, and they're tracking his cards. Can you please take out a loan for $50,000 and send it? It's okay if the bank won't normally approve that - I'll "employ you" and send over a paystub showing you make over $90,000/month! That loan gets approved instantly. You take out a few more because you want your boyfriend of 6 months to survive of course.
You're simply funding his night out with his next target. It's a rotating scam. Pretty insane to me.
That is an incredible scam . Easy to see how it could suck in some people. Lot of overhead, though. Wonder how many potential victims tap out early and never yield a return. I suppose the front man only requires a minimal amount of charm when they are an heir.
I mean a lot of the investment scams you see on places like Reddit - like the "testing the network" crypto scam - are pretty hamfisted. People still fall for them though.
It was a pretty wild ride, for an arvix paper lol. Easily as good as a provocative work of fiction, It had me questioning my marriage briefly until I rolled over and looked at my toddler, and briefly thought “holy shirt this runs deep!” (And then obviously broke out of the spell of the story lol)
Still, it’s a testament to the level of emotional damage that these scams must levy on their actual victims.
I saw a YouTube who had planted a mole inside one of these farms. Each guy ran something like 10 WhatsApp on his PC and when needed they had girls in a waiting room “on call” to do FaceTime.
3 to 11 months is long enough. I wonder if higher level scaammers spend even longer for even higher rewards, years instead of months for the momey. At that point it should be a much higher purpose/agenda but I guess these timespans must be happening too.
Most motorcycle gangs require a 1 year hang around, plus the introduced person has to be known for at least a year.
The conventional wisdom is to wait 2 years to marry someone, and 1 year at the absolute bare minimum if you are old or at the edge of the fertility window or in some extenuating circumstance.
This seems somewhat confirmed by the fact it outlives the measure of these long-running scams. Perhaps the conventional wisdom is correct.
for the average person, the limerence phase -- where your brain produces dopamine instead of oxytocin when around your partner -- lasts around 20-26 months.
aka the honeymoon phase. wait until the dopamine hits stop and then see where you stand with that marriage...
searching "limerence dopamine" will get you basically all of the info you need. skip the first 6-8 obviously AI gen articles and hit wikipedia or some of the more reputable Medium writers. that said, chances are the first links, even if AI generated, will link to some sort of research.
Our clandestine services will spend years getting people into the right places. I mean at at certain point the difference between the two blurs, and the social engineering entirely overlaps.
The podcast Scam, Inc details all if this and is very interesting and worthwhile. Talks about the big cases and the people who perpetrate the scams. It has surprising detail.
There are token rewards for successes and punishments, sometimes extreme, for low productivity. If a slave is seen as having no worth to the endeavour and cannot be trafficked, they will sometimes be killed as a warning to the others that productivity is expected.
It’s a horrific and brutal scenario that pits victims against victims. In many ways, the targets have less to lose than the victims targeting them.
"...workers at KK Park are subjected to 17-hour workdays and are frequently spied on, tortured, and threatened with murder when attempting to flee the compound.[11][17] Passports and cell phones of workers were confiscated to prevent unmonitored communication with the outside world. The complex includes supermarkets, hospital, restaurants and hotels to form a closed community.[citation needed] Illegal organ harvesting was also reported to take place inside KK Park.[4] KK Park victims could only leave by paying a "contract termination" fee which is calculated by the inflated cost of transportation and how much money the victims earned for the scam companies."
Enslaved, having family members held hostage, or some other threat of violence. Once you start stealing amounts of money that other people will kill you for then it's likely for that group to use that level of violence against its own members to ensure compliance.
> "It seemed legitimate, there was no reason to think that it could be fake – if she could be a scammer, so could any of my actual friends."
Which isn't that far from the truth, eh.
Tupperware and Amway might be legit MLMs (there is a product attached, after all), but there are sooo many "side hustles" preying particularly on women that are outright scams - and inevitably the victims of these lose almost all of their friends and even family because they're all sick sooner or later from them constantly attempting to shill whatever supplements, insurances, shitcoins or kitchen gadgets they're currently dealing. It's truly heartbreaking to see people you know fall for that bullshit and get sucked into the vortex with no way of pulling them out.
Eh. While it's surprising to see someone string along someone through the internet for so long, it's not a really a new thing in the physical world. It happens once in a while that someone marries someone much richer just to file for a divorce a bit later. Heck, it's actually socially acceptable to be nice to people just because you want something from them.
I recently received a DM on Twitter, this person claimed to have known me growing up and had a surprising amount of personal information some of which I don't recall ever having posted online. I have a very good memory of my childhood and know for a fact that I never knew this person.
The persons profile was strangely convincing, it was hyper-local to my neighborhood growing up. This account had existed for something like 4 or 5 years and had posts going back at least a few. It was almost convincing. The tell was just that their posts were too targeted, all "Hey, local event is going on" "Hey, local politics thing" with no other thoughts expressed. Their replies section was just littered with replies to people about how things were "awesome" or "great news" without any critique or thought.
The whole thing was very unsettling. It was the first scam where I really felt like it would have been easy to fall for with a standard amount of critical thinking. If I had a hazier recollection of my childhood I might have.
I can't imagine this bot was made specifically for me, I'm not that important, but certainly people in my area. I genuinely wonder if this is part of some larger network of hyper-local bots. I don't look forward to the attacks to come as AI progresses.
Scammers tend to create ecosystems of fake accounts in large cities or communities, such as the expat community in Paris.
These are easy to fabricate and maintain, and consist of a social network of individuals who are either loosely connected or constantly changing.
They use these accounts to collect data about key people, events, meet-ups and news events.They have developed a full lifecycle for these accounts. Creation, enrichment, data collection, then consumption and end of life when they are used for scams.
Couple months ago I got message from random woman on Telegram, I'm sure from the account photo it self is AI generated, and start play along. After I got some photo of her, I start reverse search the photos and found some Russian forum [1] that some people share their experience about pig-butchering scam
I get presented with one or two of these a month. It’s easy to be calloused until you remember that these people are also victims, often in worse ways than you could ever be as one of their targets.
The best thing is just to ignore completely. If you engage at all, you risk worsening their situation by wasting their time, while if you do engage you might be saving someone else at their expense…. It’s lose/lose to engage in any way.
I’ve settled on just saying, hey, I’m sorry that they are in the situation they are in, and I hope they find the strength to make it out someday. That makes it clear that there is nothing to be gained while offering a tiny bit of hope and empathy, which I’m sure is in short supply.
> If you engage at all, you risk worsening their situation by wasting their time, while if you do engage you might be saving someone else at their expense….
I don't understand what you are arguing for here? That they need to be allowed to scam someone else to avoid worsening their situation?
I'd say wasting their time is the best solution. It avoids giving the bosses info on what approaches works with who and helps makes runnning these sorts of operations uneconomical.
>That they need to be allowed to scam someone else to avoid worsening their situation?
There are two levels of scammers here. One is the low level scammer that is directly interfacing with you. In these situations they are also victims that are being held by violence. Simply put if bad things happen to these people or not the scam will remain as this level is rather cheap.
The bosses will observe from a higher level based on the successful feedback and direct their efforts there, much like a spammer that calculates the return on millions and millions of sent emails.
To catch the bosses we need nation state/global level enforcement against said people. The problem is they quite often pay their local governments handsomely to protect against them.
> the scam will remain as this level is rather cheap.
The less efficient you can make the process, the less you make it attractive to put resources into scaling it. Focus on making them generate the types of proof that aren't as easy to fabricate or at least give them as little information about why their initial approach failed as possible by playing along for a while after you catch on so they can't figure out how they got caught.
The victim you are being manipulated by is judged on their numbers, not on how hard they tried.
While what you are saying is theoretically effective, it assumes that enough people will do this to impact the business model… they won’t. So all you will accomplish is increasing human misery of trafficked slaves or their loved ones, while accomplishing nothing besides feeling a sense of retribution.
This problem requires state-level intervention, but it is mostly getting state level support.
The incentive alignment on this is not going to allow improvement. Perhaps if client nations imposed sanctions on nations that allowed this kind of industry, that could be changed.
I don’t think there’s any good answers here. Wasting their time will push their numbers down which, if they are not deemed productive, will almost certainly result in potentially horrific negative consequences for them or perhaps a loved one.
The kind of people that run criminal organisations generally don’t give credit for trying. It’s strictly numbers.
> The kind of people that run criminal organisations generally don’t give credit for trying. It’s strictly numbers.
Hence my argument that wasting the scammers' resources is the moral choice. If you help the bosses identify bad prospects (even if just yourself), then you make the activity more profitable and incentivize it.
Agree that we are allowed to waste time. Sending money to scammers doesn't help anyone it just makes whoever is in charge of the criminal ring more powerful.
I have a family member falling for these on a regular basis. In their case it’s possibly tied to mental health issues. They are able to drive, converse, care for self, but are sending money to groups that are clearly not real (example: fundraiser for a celebrity supposedly in the hospital, when news shows they weren’t. Was convinced actually conversing with the celebrity). Rest of the family has taken some steps but does feel at a loss. How do you prevent them from being seriously hurt emotionally and financially while respecting their autonomy and dignity? Even when they “come anround” to the fact they have been scammed, that adds insult to injury. The vector is definitely social media and sms/phone.
Any tips would be appreciated. Locking down phone hasn’t really helped, and finances are already segregated to hopefully avoid giving away total life savings.
Sounds like some form of guardianship/conservatorship is in order. Talk to a lawyer, if you haven't already (maybe that's what you mean by finances are already segregated).
Build those things into your estate. My family made a trust that pays bills and what not. So your income goes to the trust and you use it to pay regular bills and groceries and what not. Anything on the "not-approved" list takes a vote of the people controlling the trust (parents and kids). That has helped us avoid some bullshit so far.
Of course, you avoid the pig butchering, but open yourself to abuse from the trustees. Reasonably want a new BMW? Hope your kid is ok with their inheritance shrinking by $60k. Etc.
I'm not claiming a trust is a bad idea, only that you need to take care picking the trustees. And be sure there's an "out" if you and the trustees fall out.
The related tragedy of this crime is that hundreds of thousands of people are recruited and trafficked into scam centres - particularly in SE Asia. People are then forced to conduct the scams. Although it's possible AI advancements might eventually lead to fully automated scam processes resulting in reduced trafficking into scam centres.
The interviews with the victims are heartbreaking. There's one dad/daughter pair where the dad has lost almost literally everything, is on camera being interviewed about everything that happened, and is still flipping between "it was a total scam" and "maybe if I just send them another fee payment I can get at least some of my money back" and the daughter saying, "No, dad! It's a scam, and you are not sending them anymore money!"
These are mostly cryptocurrency investment scams. More crypto regulation would help, but the so-called crypto industry doesn't want to see that happen because their product has no other utility than enabling this stuff.
I doubt that, it seems the investment websites used are entirely fake, they probably just use crypto because it's well known and sounds good to many people. They might however just as well promote fake investments in stocks or something else.
Try sending multiple wires to Myanmar and tell your bank it's for "an investment opportunity" when they invariably block those or even lock your account.
Yeah, the crypto is the hook. They don't have to do any trading once you've moved the money (but they do obviously want to show via UI that you're making bank and that you could/should go bigger)
I knew some Scientologists in the late nineties, and there are many parallels. Ironically, they were also devout Christians, and one later became a priest.
Something very eye opening is know precisely who L Ron Hubbard is, what kind of person he was, and nonetheless seeing a real religion building up around him made me realise that all of the major religions must have started similarly.
Watching Trump's followers turning MAGA into a new political religion gives me the same heavy feeling of dismay.
Scientology has gone through phases. Up until the revelation of "Operation Snow White" [1] it was oriented towards recruiting large numbers of footsoldiers into "staff" roles and set prices that made their services accessible to a rather broad "public". Notably L. Ron Hubbard had written that it was immoral to ask for donations without giving something in return so it was all oriented around getting people to pay for training and auditing.
I don't know about the exact causality but in terms of chronology they started raising prices rapidly around the time Snow White broke eventually putting the auditing route out of reach for a lot of people.
Under David Miscavige the church made a transition to soliciting donations for "Ideal Orgs" [2] and to the IAS in general. The model now seems to be to get large donations from a few whales and if there is a role for less well heeled members it is to have extras to populate the scene and look as if there was a broad-based movement to contribute to.
One interpretation is that social inequality has increased and that the plain ordinary Joe doesn't have enough money to be worth soliciting and if you wanted to build a cult today it would be oriented 100% around finding people in the intersection of rich and vulnerable. Sometimes I think 'rationalism' is all about that -- there's no point in scooping up aimless students at airports in 2025 and making them live in communal houses making money selling candles when you could make a movement which is all about getting the rich to donate money, e.g. "effective altruism". You don't want people's time anymore, it just isn't worth anything.
They still have slaves at least in LA. I’ve seen them at the L Ron Hubbard Life Exhibit building at around 3am. Probably a dozen of them in uniform still cleaning the first floor. One was featherdusting the brass bust of Hubbard you can see from the street. At 3am. At what is effectively a museum exhibit that no one goes to which closed 5 hours earlier. In a 12 story building where all the lights are on but all the curtains are drawn.
This seems eerily similar to modern churches. A UU group I have some exposure to is on the brink of going broke and only sustained by 1-2 really wealthy members, and from what they say it's not a rare case.
I don't think this is unique to churches, or even non-profits. Plenty of non-church non-profits rely on a few large donors for much or their funding (in fact plenty are designed that way out the gate - they're founded by one very wealthy individual to work on the projects they care about) and plenty of for profit businesses rely on a few large dollar clients for much of their revenue. Both could potentially be seen extensions of the same economic system that concentrates wealth for both individuals and businesses at top.
Politics in general has a lot of parallels to religion.
People need to segment into belief groups, and politics is the new church.
Only this church is a popularity game to decide who controls a vast federal standing domestic army of armed police, as well as an outward projecting armed forces. The scary thing is that everyone seems to believe their church is correct, and willing to employ the machine of violence to enforce it.
This is kind of one of the points Jonathan Rauch made in his book "Cross Purposes"[0]. He talks about how the common zeitgeist went from being christian and conservative to being christian because you were a conservative and because of that people are treating politics with the same fervor that they would have treated religion in the past.
It's certainly true about a certain kind of evangelical Christian who doesn't go to church [1] but it's also true about many of the left-coded groups that started out on Twitter and Tumblr and moved on to Mastodon and Bluesky. For that matter it was true about Marxism back in the day, The God that Failed [2] was a criticism that took this tack.
My current feeling is that there's nothing more dangerous than "Man's Search for Meaning" and if people can't find meaning in the little things they do every day that search for meaning inevitably leads to trouble.
I'm surprised that so many of the 26 participants in the paper's study were young and well-educated, with a mean age of 48. I would have guessed a much older group of victims.
The cons play the statistics, and usually target people that have other issues in their life. One kind lady we knew had early Alzheimer's disease, and they still ran a crypto investor scam and fake police funds recovery con. Yes, the scams actually work on smart people too sometimes...
It is not about education or IQ level, but rather if cons target someone currently vulnerable. Note: the 7 spear-phishers on YC are rather obvious in an attempt to avoid IT people. =3
This. I am a senior software dev, living in Switzerland. Few years ago there was an issue with my residence permit renewal, process that should have taken few weeks took more than a year. No way to contact that Geneva immigration office, and you can't visit them personally, emails ignored. Official phone contact is just a single phone that often rang few times and then dropped the call, 19 out of 20 times. Few times it was picked up clearly annoyed and couldn't-be-bothered woman who just told me to wait, no further info. My boss applied for same after me, got the papers in 3 weeks.
Me and my kids (who have same permit as me) were basically living in Switzerland semi-illegally, while sporting high paying permanent banking job and wife is a doctor.
One day a call came which introduced themselves as Swiss police, a very elaborate scheme, stating that my ID was used in fraud and I am being investigated. They caught me in this period of fear of getting deported, ruining efforts of past 15 years and my whole family lives. I followed through, they were very clever, pulled just the right strings.
But then came the moment when all this could be solved if I just went to the shop and bought... Apple gift card. LOL. But man I felt extremely vulnerable and under tremendous stress during those few hours.
Yeah, I remember a friend getting a call during coworking and her face just went white, and after the call she told us that was the tax people calling about irregularities (she had moved countries and was slow in sorting out her tax situation), and we all bought it - there was no sober "oh yeah it's a scam" advice from us - it was really perfectly timed, and took a day or to for her to reason through that it must be a scam. (No money lost though!)
AML/KYC laws have done us a big favour. Otherwise that would be a bank txn they would ask for. And now buying $200 of gift cards as an actual gift is impossible (in physical space)
On the other hand, many companies outsource their AML/KYC as it's a cost center. And your passport, face, bills, address is stored in a server with dubious encryption, handled by poorly paid service reps.
You can google the many data breaches of such data. Great for scams.
Always verify a wire details through an initiated call to a verified number of the legitimate institution in question.
My country has AML law, but all the time people are tricked into wiring money to scammer for a house or something else because they take wire details by spoofed e-mail or a received phone call.
The scammers are very clever, they will monitor e-mail from a title company or some other company with large invoices, then trick you at the exact moment you are making a legitimate transaction to a legitimate institution. Because you did not make a mistake sending the wire, nor did the bank, only sent it to exactly the wrong person, once the wire gets forwarded on out of country you're often SOL.
Many scammers have sources in government agencies, companies, insurance companies, etc.
The day my mother asked to receive her pension, she received calls from scammers, even though she had been relatively spared until then.
I have had similar feedback from people who have to call for help with mental health, depression or addiction issues.
These people have no scruples and are willing to pay others without much hesitation.
And crypto, needless to say, enables these pig butchering scams (and others). The Economist estimates the scam industry to rake in about $500 bn a year.
We are all vulnerable at some point. I'd even go as far as saying we all fall for something at some point. Even if it's something small the psychological effect can be large, and there can be a lot of shame, so many do not share their experience.
I know an engineer in his 30s who had a “girlfriend” somewhere in Asia and he would send her money regularly. They had been “together” for 2 years but never met. He even knew that something was probably wrong but did it anyways out of desperation.
> The term comes from fraudsters referring to their victims as 'pigs' – those they gradually 'fatten up' by luring them into a fake romance or friendship before 'butchering' them by convincing them to invest, often in fake cryptocurrency schemes.
I often get these 'Is this <random_name>?' messages on telegram, from usually what appears to be a beautiful woman.
I always answer on the positive, it is very fun to see them try to ask a question that will make me answer 'no that's not me' so they can continue on the next part. Can recommend.
Lol, that's great. I got one that was something like "Are you still coming for dinner? The chicken is just finished baking." It sounded delicious, I wanted it so badly to be real haha
The oldest version I heard of was in Japan in the 1990s. Scammers would call elderly people, claiming to be grandchildren, and demand money or they would be arrested/scandalized.
It was called the "ore ore" (pronounced "o-ray o-ray") scam because they would typically use the word "ore" for "I", a familiar and often brusque or aggressive form of the first person singular.
When you start learning a little more about pig butchering scams and the organisations which run them, it gets extremely harrowing. There are literally hundreds of thousands of people being forced to work in these online scams across Myanmar and Cambodia under threat of violence or worse. The human cost to both sides of this practice is staggering.
My dad passed away about three weeks after being fully pig-butchered, losing all of his money and reputation with family/friends. We all tried to talk him out of it, but it was like he joined a cult, for he cut us off and lost his mind. The whole sorry saga is very hard to live with. The sums of money were vast, cocaine addiction would have been a more cost effective way to go.
The pig-butchers had some type of bot/AI/wage slaves for the backend and they used Zendesk for the frontend. I am not happy that Zendesk is being used to basically rob people and I am minded to write up the whole sorry saga here just to inspire developers to steer their companies away from the Zendesk product. They didn't shoot my dad, they just sold the gun.
They are using actual slaves, not "wage slaves". They kidnap people, lured for work in Thailand, and take them to Myanmar/Burma, where there is a civil war ongoing and a form of lawlessness; while there is a relatively good internet connectivity and electricity. They beat people and force them to do this.
It's mostly run by Chinese. (But they scam Chinese too. It originated as scamming older single Chinese ladies, actually.)
> It's mostly run by Chinese. (But they scam Chinese too. It originated as scamming older single Chinese ladies, actually.)
This comment suggests that the main target would be non-Chinese, with some incidental Chinese targets/victims. I think the reality is the opposite, and that the primary targets are Chinese, with some incidental Western victims, for the simple reason that both the perpetrators and the (involutary) scam workers are largely far more fluent in Chinese and knowlegable about Chinese financial systems, culture, etc.
Both in mainland China and other countries with large ethnic Chinese populations, there is quite some awareness and media information these issues, e.g.:
p.s.: From casual conversations with European friends, there are probably smaller scale "native" versions of such scams in many Western countries. Large scam centers with imprissoned workers might be somewhat specific to Chinese/Cambodia.
No. The Chinese perpetrators might have targeted predominantly Chinese victims originally, but not for quite some time.
First, China has vigorously cracked down on crypto, and secondly, it has engaged in large scale information campaigns and PSA warning about these scams.
The people trapped in the scam centres are often English speakers, such as from the Philippines, India, Hong Kong, anglophone African countries, etc., targeting Western countries, or nationals of the target countries, e.g. Thailand or Vietnam.
The Chinese gangsters, like Russian hackers, now prefer to target foreigners.
If you want to know more, I can recommend the usual books about crypto, the podcast and article series on Scam Inc by The Economist, and Martin Purbrink’s substack.
It's not my imagination, these scam centeres in Myanmar definitely exist and kidnap and scam people, I guess they also moved to other countries now though.
Sorry to hear this happened to your father especially with such a dire conclusion. Hopefully writing about it will give you some catharsis and help someone else, plus maybe get Zendesk to crack down on the use of their product.
NPR Planet Money did a segment on pig butchering scams back in May. They played along with one to get a first hand perspective of the process. It’s a fascinating listen, way more complicated than I thought, and tragic for both ends of the scam.
> We should teach/learn resisting scams in school. Far more useful than any other subject.
A lot of people actually are scammers - and this is socially accepted. What is the difference between the "everyday scams" and the scams from this article is rather the scope.
Thus, to make people scam-resistant, you have to make them insanely distrusting about everybody in society (or to express it more directly: make the people paranoid and near-schizophrenic), including the government, the politicians etc.
Since school serves an agenda, this is of course not done.
This. "Scam resistance", in my mind, maps to critical thinking and a bit of pattern matching. Could definitely be taught, but critical thinking seems to be out of favor in (American) education at the moment (and has been for a while, honestly).
It is not quite so terrible as to need to make everyone distrustful.
There is an old saying: "You can't scam an honest man." I think a lot of people misunderstand this; it is not that being honest somehow lets you just know when you're being scammed. Indeed the natural "surely they'd be even more vulnerable" probably has some truth to it in some sense.
What it means is that the vast bulk of scams involve convincing the mark that they are dishonestly pulling off a scam. You pay $400 and you're going to get $millions. She misidentified you as someone else but hey you're just so amazingly charismatic that she's into you anyhow, and if you just pour a few more hundreds in she's totally going to let you sleep with her. You know you never entered that lottery, but hey, if they're going to make a mistake and say you won who are you to argue, right?
Not everything fits into this; one classic that affects businesses more than individuals is Ye Olde Just Issue An Invoice And Hope They Pay It. There are also some scams around posing with varying degrees of fidelity as a specific individual you know, such as by hacking their emails and sending this out as them, although in many cases that's still just a delivery mechanism for a scam based on convincing the mark they're going to pull a scam.
A solution that will make you highly resistant to scams, though as I am saying outright, not immune, is to realize that you will not get anything for free, to refuse to participate, to be aggressively honest even if it seems to hurt you. Perhaps ironically, or perhaps counter to your intuition, in the modern world, such aggressive honesty will on the net benefit you by protecting you from these scams. The same ethics that make you give $5 back to the cashier that they gave you in extra change will save you hundreds of thousands in a pig butchering scam.
In the modern era it probably is getting more important to verify identities even of people you know, which is a new and developing angle.
Once I got suckered into at least texting one of these scammers. Had just got a new phone number, assumed it was the usual trying to reach the previous owner of the number, then all of a sudden they started talking about crypto, and it's ciao from my end...
Just blocked anyone I didn't know after that and after 3-4 numbers it stopped forever.
I've saved at least one elderly person from giving "Elon Musk" $100k for the secret bitcoin mining operation he's building, as Elon explained to them in the deepfake.
"Elon" apparently has secret telegram accounts too.
The scammers worked with additional people who met them in the real world.
Someone else's elderly father wasn't so lucky: they kept sending all their life savings to the scammers, until the wife divorced him and the family suffered so much.
They usually dont pay out anything. It's just target's "investment account" value grows until they want to withdraw. Obviously some scammers can even pay something at first, but it's just not usual strategy.
In the article it says some victims were allowed to withdraw small amounts, and one says he got it as a gift card. So that's where all those gift cards from the email scams go...
The article states than an estimated 75 billion dollars have been lost since 2020, the corruption goes way beyond local cops, and in Myanmar probably involves the government directly. Whole cities are being built for scamming.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/sep/08/m...
Wondering if it were feasible to vibe-code a Bot that would engage and invest the little sums that yield those bait gains, and harvest those.
Eject at the right time.
Frankly, I am shocked by this. I don’t mean that to criticise you or others that didn’t know the term, but the quality of the discourse/media.
Pig butchering and related crypto scams are an enormous problem. Latest estimates are that the cyber scam industry revenues exceed the illegal drug trade. There are so many victims, both cyber trafficking victims promised great jobs then forced to perpetrate the scams, as well as victims handing over huge sums. Both suffer not only financial loss, but psychological damage.
Lastly, this threatens to destabilize whole countries - as the narcos screwed up Colombia and Mexico, so these scammers are screwing up the Philippines, Cambodia, Myanmar etc.
Again, that such a massive problem is so little known is in itself scandalous.
Same here (I am French, so the language is yet another barrier). I thought this was about viral actions by extreme ecologists that get into butchering companies and expose how the animals suffer.
And I thought - "these are scams?" But hey, everything is possible.
And then got to the comments and learned a few things :) The article is very good and the comments as well.
I did same at first but then recognized it as something that has affected family members. Would be nice to find a name that is a little more respectful to the victims. I can tell you victims already have guilt/shame for falling for these things. I would send them the article but don’t want to call them “pigs” on top of what they have already suffered
Their "relationship" developed over about 1 yr, and which point they sent ~£30k to temporarily cover a cashflow shortfall in their scammer's apparently legitimate business.
This was quickly detected by their spouse, who was obviously livid.
However..... not only did they transfer these funds to some limbo, and had received extremely clear advice that they had been scammed, they did the same thing with another ~£30k about a month later.
The funds so transferred went to some account in China.
The repetition of this "aberrant" behavior contributed to the divorce of my relative and their spouse.
In later conversations with the victim, who did eventually realize that they had been scammed, I attempted to reassure them by saying that these scammers are very skilled, and that they were innocent in the whole affair. It was small consolation, though.
"I love you honey. Hey, let's play Raid Shadow Legends™, my Favourite Game Ever together! If you sign up with this link you get one hundred gold and a Free Epic Champion <3"
What contemporary economic ideology has taught me: If it sounds too good to be true, it usually isn't. And the Venn diagram of scams and business is almost a circle in a sense that companies and criminals don't have your interests in mind. There's really no reason to trust either.
I got sucked into reading this paper, and it has completely changed my perception of these scams. They are incredibly thorough and realistic. Here are some quotes that drove this home for me.
"The bond phase showed that scammers had tremendous patience; this phase lasted anywhere from 3 to 11 months before the scammer moved on to the next stage of the scam."
"When I spoke to her on a video call, it was the same person from the photos. She was even wearing the dress that matched a photo she had sent earlier in the day."
“She did not push me to invest, or ask for money. She seemed genuinely interested in me and we spoke for nearly 6 months before she even brought up investments; it all seemed so real and organic."
"It seemed legitimate, there was no reason to think that it could be fake – if she could be a scammer, so could any of my actual friends."
"[the site] was similar to what you would expect on an investment portfolio website; in fact, the prices of stocks and bitcoin also matched..."
"According to recent research [23], these scams have resulted in losses of nearly 75 billion dollars since 2020."
Definitely sympathizes the victims even more. I had been thinking that these were 1-2 month, ham-fisted operations: establish contact and rush to grab the cash from the gullible rube. To string along the target for a year shows dedication completely separate from the pedestrian scams you normally encounter.
> To string along the target for a year shows dedication completely separate from the pedestrian scams you normally encounter.
presumably this is where the name comes from, no?
you spend a year fattening the pig, before you butcher it, hence pig butchering schemes.
I never took it so literally. Just thought it was to develop a relationship with a mark and then put the screws to them as soon as possible.
Someone gullible, like a reality show contestant (90 Day Fiancé, Bachelor, etc). A person who can “fall in love” immediately and will do whatever to prove their affection because they believe they have limited alternatives.
A year investment…that is a meaningful (platonic or romantic) time for a relationship, where some sense of obligation/pity to the scammer could develop.
I happened across the "Tinder Swindler" video on Netflix the other day, and I was shocked at how elaborate these scams can get. Always thought I'd catch onto this stuff, but...
Imagine: you meet someone online. You talk for a while, and decide to meet up for dinner. They say nothing, but upon googling them (for safety, of course) you discover they're the son of a billionaire - a weapons or diamonds magnate or something to that effect.
Anyways, the day of the date comes around and a brand new Rolls Royce Phantom comes to pick you up, then drops you off at a private jet. You go to one of the highest end restaurants in the continent. You're experiencing a probably $20,000 night between tips, booze, food, and entertainment. You're showered in expensive gifts over weeks and weeks - honestly, where is all this money coming from, if not his pocket? He's a billionaire! You see him checking into hotels all around Europe, but you mention you miss him so he flies in just to get coffee with you for an hour. He's clearly head-over-heels for you.
tl;dr he has a scheme where he's got some photos of his guard roughed up, and a little blood on the "swindler", which aren't shown until the woman is deeply infatuated with him. It's a very urgent problem - some business competitors are out to get him, and they're tracking his cards. Can you please take out a loan for $50,000 and send it? It's okay if the bank won't normally approve that - I'll "employ you" and send over a paystub showing you make over $90,000/month! That loan gets approved instantly. You take out a few more because you want your boyfriend of 6 months to survive of course.
You're simply funding his night out with his next target. It's a rotating scam. Pretty insane to me.
That is an incredible scam . Easy to see how it could suck in some people. Lot of overhead, though. Wonder how many potential victims tap out early and never yield a return. I suppose the front man only requires a minimal amount of charm when they are an heir.
Oh, I should’ve been more clear - that’s fake. He has websites set up, etc., but everything he buys is paid for by another woman he tricked.
That's the ones i've encountered
I mean a lot of the investment scams you see on places like Reddit - like the "testing the network" crypto scam - are pretty hamfisted. People still fall for them though.
It was a pretty wild ride, for an arvix paper lol. Easily as good as a provocative work of fiction, It had me questioning my marriage briefly until I rolled over and looked at my toddler, and briefly thought “holy shirt this runs deep!” (And then obviously broke out of the spell of the story lol)
Still, it’s a testament to the level of emotional damage that these scams must levy on their actual victims.
The wild part will be when you find out that the toddler is actually the mastermind.
Or simply that you're not the father.
That took a dark twist lol.
Fortunately, there are plenty of worthy partners in the world, even if there are lots of ones that are a waste of time and resources.
I saw a YouTube who had planted a mole inside one of these farms. Each guy ran something like 10 WhatsApp on his PC and when needed they had girls in a waiting room “on call” to do FaceTime.
Was it Jim Browning’s video? [0] (WhatsApp screencast starts at 5:42 [1])
[0]: https://youtu.be/vu-Y1h9rTUs
[1]: https://youtu.be/vu-Y1h9rTUs?t=342
Yes it was. I don't follow the guy, so I had no recollection of the creator. Thanks for sharing the link and name!
Jim Browning is such a legend
3 to 11 months is long enough. I wonder if higher level scaammers spend even longer for even higher rewards, years instead of months for the momey. At that point it should be a much higher purpose/agenda but I guess these timespans must be happening too.
Most motorcycle gangs require a 1 year hang around, plus the introduced person has to be known for at least a year.
The conventional wisdom is to wait 2 years to marry someone, and 1 year at the absolute bare minimum if you are old or at the edge of the fertility window or in some extenuating circumstance.
This seems somewhat confirmed by the fact it outlives the measure of these long-running scams. Perhaps the conventional wisdom is correct.
for the average person, the limerence phase -- where your brain produces dopamine instead of oxytocin when around your partner -- lasts around 20-26 months.
aka the honeymoon phase. wait until the dopamine hits stop and then see where you stand with that marriage...
I've never heard limerence described in physiological terms like this before, do you recommend any sources for more on this?
searching "limerence dopamine" will get you basically all of the info you need. skip the first 6-8 obviously AI gen articles and hit wikipedia or some of the more reputable Medium writers. that said, chances are the first links, even if AI generated, will link to some sort of research.
Our clandestine services will spend years getting people into the right places. I mean at at certain point the difference between the two blurs, and the social engineering entirely overlaps.
I mean, Madoff spent nearly four decades building confidence.
wait until you meet a real woman, bazinga
That was a tabloid page turner of an arxiv preprint. Really nice mixed methods research paper that conveys the depth of these scams.
The podcast Scam, Inc details all if this and is very interesting and worthwhile. Talks about the big cases and the people who perpetrate the scams. It has surprising detail.
the scammers had the best CRM software and "customer service" training.
If any of the scam farm worker failed they will get physical punishment or even capital punishment...
Is this for sure? I can imagine that even then, 99% of the attempts will fail.
There are token rewards for successes and punishments, sometimes extreme, for low productivity. If a slave is seen as having no worth to the endeavour and cannot be trafficked, they will sometimes be killed as a warning to the others that productivity is expected.
It’s a horrific and brutal scenario that pits victims against victims. In many ways, the targets have less to lose than the victims targeting them.
"...workers at KK Park are subjected to 17-hour workdays and are frequently spied on, tortured, and threatened with murder when attempting to flee the compound.[11][17] Passports and cell phones of workers were confiscated to prevent unmonitored communication with the outside world. The complex includes supermarkets, hospital, restaurants and hotels to form a closed community.[citation needed] Illegal organ harvesting was also reported to take place inside KK Park.[4] KK Park victims could only leave by paying a "contract termination" fee which is calculated by the inflated cost of transportation and how much money the victims earned for the scam companies."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KK_Park
Jesus. It had never occurred to me that the front-line people perpetrating these scams could be enslaved themselves.
Enslaved, having family members held hostage, or some other threat of violence. Once you start stealing amounts of money that other people will kill you for then it's likely for that group to use that level of violence against its own members to ensure compliance.
many of the them are in heavy debt or commited crime and had no other jobs avaible.
Sure, most attempts will fail. The cyber trafficking victims are punished if they fail to reach their quote.
> "It seemed legitimate, there was no reason to think that it could be fake – if she could be a scammer, so could any of my actual friends."
Which isn't that far from the truth, eh.
Tupperware and Amway might be legit MLMs (there is a product attached, after all), but there are sooo many "side hustles" preying particularly on women that are outright scams - and inevitably the victims of these lose almost all of their friends and even family because they're all sick sooner or later from them constantly attempting to shill whatever supplements, insurances, shitcoins or kitchen gadgets they're currently dealing. It's truly heartbreaking to see people you know fall for that bullshit and get sucked into the vortex with no way of pulling them out.
they're not legit, they're just scams. that real products are involved is irrelevant given the amount of financial and personal damage involved.
> "It seemed legitimate, there was no reason to think that it could be fake – if she could be a scammer, so could any of my actual friends."
Wow, this really makes me think. You see, I have this president that ...
Eh. While it's surprising to see someone string along someone through the internet for so long, it's not a really a new thing in the physical world. It happens once in a while that someone marries someone much richer just to file for a divorce a bit later. Heck, it's actually socially acceptable to be nice to people just because you want something from them.
I recently received a DM on Twitter, this person claimed to have known me growing up and had a surprising amount of personal information some of which I don't recall ever having posted online. I have a very good memory of my childhood and know for a fact that I never knew this person.
The persons profile was strangely convincing, it was hyper-local to my neighborhood growing up. This account had existed for something like 4 or 5 years and had posts going back at least a few. It was almost convincing. The tell was just that their posts were too targeted, all "Hey, local event is going on" "Hey, local politics thing" with no other thoughts expressed. Their replies section was just littered with replies to people about how things were "awesome" or "great news" without any critique or thought.
The whole thing was very unsettling. It was the first scam where I really felt like it would have been easy to fall for with a standard amount of critical thinking. If I had a hazier recollection of my childhood I might have.
I can't imagine this bot was made specifically for me, I'm not that important, but certainly people in my area. I genuinely wonder if this is part of some larger network of hyper-local bots. I don't look forward to the attacks to come as AI progresses.
Scammers tend to create ecosystems of fake accounts in large cities or communities, such as the expat community in Paris.
These are easy to fabricate and maintain, and consist of a social network of individuals who are either loosely connected or constantly changing.
They use these accounts to collect data about key people, events, meet-ups and news events.They have developed a full lifecycle for these accounts. Creation, enrichment, data collection, then consumption and end of life when they are used for scams.
They are playing the long game.
Couple months ago I got message from random woman on Telegram, I'm sure from the account photo it self is AI generated, and start play along. After I got some photo of her, I start reverse search the photos and found some Russian forum [1] that some people share their experience about pig-butchering scam
[1] https://pikabu.ru/story/temu_neponyatnyiy_razvod_11302944
Reverse search likely won't work anymore. Too easy to generate a new face for each target.
I get presented with one or two of these a month. It’s easy to be calloused until you remember that these people are also victims, often in worse ways than you could ever be as one of their targets.
The best thing is just to ignore completely. If you engage at all, you risk worsening their situation by wasting their time, while if you do engage you might be saving someone else at their expense…. It’s lose/lose to engage in any way.
I’ve settled on just saying, hey, I’m sorry that they are in the situation they are in, and I hope they find the strength to make it out someday. That makes it clear that there is nothing to be gained while offering a tiny bit of hope and empathy, which I’m sure is in short supply.
> If you engage at all, you risk worsening their situation by wasting their time, while if you do engage you might be saving someone else at their expense….
I don't understand what you are arguing for here? That they need to be allowed to scam someone else to avoid worsening their situation?
I'd say wasting their time is the best solution. It avoids giving the bosses info on what approaches works with who and helps makes runnning these sorts of operations uneconomical.
>That they need to be allowed to scam someone else to avoid worsening their situation?
There are two levels of scammers here. One is the low level scammer that is directly interfacing with you. In these situations they are also victims that are being held by violence. Simply put if bad things happen to these people or not the scam will remain as this level is rather cheap.
The bosses will observe from a higher level based on the successful feedback and direct their efforts there, much like a spammer that calculates the return on millions and millions of sent emails.
To catch the bosses we need nation state/global level enforcement against said people. The problem is they quite often pay their local governments handsomely to protect against them.
> the scam will remain as this level is rather cheap.
The less efficient you can make the process, the less you make it attractive to put resources into scaling it. Focus on making them generate the types of proof that aren't as easy to fabricate or at least give them as little information about why their initial approach failed as possible by playing along for a while after you catch on so they can't figure out how they got caught.
The victim you are being manipulated by is judged on their numbers, not on how hard they tried.
While what you are saying is theoretically effective, it assumes that enough people will do this to impact the business model… they won’t. So all you will accomplish is increasing human misery of trafficked slaves or their loved ones, while accomplishing nothing besides feeling a sense of retribution.
This problem requires state-level intervention, but it is mostly getting state level support.
The incentive alignment on this is not going to allow improvement. Perhaps if client nations imposed sanctions on nations that allowed this kind of industry, that could be changed.
I don’t think there’s any good answers here. Wasting their time will push their numbers down which, if they are not deemed productive, will almost certainly result in potentially horrific negative consequences for them or perhaps a loved one.
The kind of people that run criminal organisations generally don’t give credit for trying. It’s strictly numbers.
> The kind of people that run criminal organisations generally don’t give credit for trying. It’s strictly numbers.
Hence my argument that wasting the scammers' resources is the moral choice. If you help the bosses identify bad prospects (even if just yourself), then you make the activity more profitable and incentivize it.
You're arguing for sending money to criminal organizations which will make them more powerful. It's a terrible advice.
Agree that we are allowed to waste time. Sending money to scammers doesn't help anyone it just makes whoever is in charge of the criminal ring more powerful.
I have a family member falling for these on a regular basis. In their case it’s possibly tied to mental health issues. They are able to drive, converse, care for self, but are sending money to groups that are clearly not real (example: fundraiser for a celebrity supposedly in the hospital, when news shows they weren’t. Was convinced actually conversing with the celebrity). Rest of the family has taken some steps but does feel at a loss. How do you prevent them from being seriously hurt emotionally and financially while respecting their autonomy and dignity? Even when they “come anround” to the fact they have been scammed, that adds insult to injury. The vector is definitely social media and sms/phone.
Any tips would be appreciated. Locking down phone hasn’t really helped, and finances are already segregated to hopefully avoid giving away total life savings.
Sounds like some form of guardianship/conservatorship is in order. Talk to a lawyer, if you haven't already (maybe that's what you mean by finances are already segregated).
The question is, what can YOU do now to avoid risk to your own estate once you are old and start losing your mental faculties?
Build those things into your estate. My family made a trust that pays bills and what not. So your income goes to the trust and you use it to pay regular bills and groceries and what not. Anything on the "not-approved" list takes a vote of the people controlling the trust (parents and kids). That has helped us avoid some bullshit so far.
Of course, you avoid the pig butchering, but open yourself to abuse from the trustees. Reasonably want a new BMW? Hope your kid is ok with their inheritance shrinking by $60k. Etc.
I'm not claiming a trust is a bad idea, only that you need to take care picking the trustees. And be sure there's an "out" if you and the trustees fall out.
The related tragedy of this crime is that hundreds of thousands of people are recruited and trafficked into scam centres - particularly in SE Asia. People are then forced to conduct the scams. Although it's possible AI advancements might eventually lead to fully automated scam processes resulting in reduced trafficking into scam centres.
For those interested in a lightweight summary, Last Week Tonight did a segment on pig-butchering about a year ago. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLPpl2ISKTg
The interviews with the victims are heartbreaking. There's one dad/daughter pair where the dad has lost almost literally everything, is on camera being interviewed about everything that happened, and is still flipping between "it was a total scam" and "maybe if I just send them another fee payment I can get at least some of my money back" and the daughter saying, "No, dad! It's a scam, and you are not sending them anymore money!"
Estimated $75 billion stolen since 2020.
These are mostly cryptocurrency investment scams. More crypto regulation would help, but the so-called crypto industry doesn't want to see that happen because their product has no other utility than enabling this stuff.
I doubt that, it seems the investment websites used are entirely fake, they probably just use crypto because it's well known and sounds good to many people. They might however just as well promote fake investments in stocks or something else.
Without convenient on/off-ramps this kind of scam would be much harder to operate.
Wire transfer?
Try sending multiple wires to Myanmar and tell your bank it's for "an investment opportunity" when they invariably block those or even lock your account.
Yeah, the crypto is the hook. They don't have to do any trading once you've moved the money (but they do obviously want to show via UI that you're making bank and that you could/should go bigger)
You can also buy 5 different official Donald Trump cryptocurrencies, too. It's not that useless.
Someone might argue that Donald Trump's political career is the most successful pig-butchering scam in the history of the world.
I knew some Scientologists in the late nineties, and there are many parallels. Ironically, they were also devout Christians, and one later became a priest.
Something very eye opening is know precisely who L Ron Hubbard is, what kind of person he was, and nonetheless seeing a real religion building up around him made me realise that all of the major religions must have started similarly.
Watching Trump's followers turning MAGA into a new political religion gives me the same heavy feeling of dismay.
Scientology has gone through phases. Up until the revelation of "Operation Snow White" [1] it was oriented towards recruiting large numbers of footsoldiers into "staff" roles and set prices that made their services accessible to a rather broad "public". Notably L. Ron Hubbard had written that it was immoral to ask for donations without giving something in return so it was all oriented around getting people to pay for training and auditing.
I don't know about the exact causality but in terms of chronology they started raising prices rapidly around the time Snow White broke eventually putting the auditing route out of reach for a lot of people.
Under David Miscavige the church made a transition to soliciting donations for "Ideal Orgs" [2] and to the IAS in general. The model now seems to be to get large donations from a few whales and if there is a role for less well heeled members it is to have extras to populate the scene and look as if there was a broad-based movement to contribute to.
One interpretation is that social inequality has increased and that the plain ordinary Joe doesn't have enough money to be worth soliciting and if you wanted to build a cult today it would be oriented 100% around finding people in the intersection of rich and vulnerable. Sometimes I think 'rationalism' is all about that -- there's no point in scooping up aimless students at airports in 2025 and making them live in communal houses making money selling candles when you could make a movement which is all about getting the rich to donate money, e.g. "effective altruism". You don't want people's time anymore, it just isn't worth anything.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Snow_White
[2] https://tonyortega.org/2021/12/23/insider-how-scientologys-i...
They still have slaves at least in LA. I’ve seen them at the L Ron Hubbard Life Exhibit building at around 3am. Probably a dozen of them in uniform still cleaning the first floor. One was featherdusting the brass bust of Hubbard you can see from the street. At 3am. At what is effectively a museum exhibit that no one goes to which closed 5 hours earlier. In a 12 story building where all the lights are on but all the curtains are drawn.
This seems eerily similar to modern churches. A UU group I have some exposure to is on the brink of going broke and only sustained by 1-2 really wealthy members, and from what they say it's not a rare case.
I don't think this is unique to churches, or even non-profits. Plenty of non-church non-profits rely on a few large donors for much or their funding (in fact plenty are designed that way out the gate - they're founded by one very wealthy individual to work on the projects they care about) and plenty of for profit businesses rely on a few large dollar clients for much of their revenue. Both could potentially be seen extensions of the same economic system that concentrates wealth for both individuals and businesses at top.
Politics in general has a lot of parallels to religion.
People need to segment into belief groups, and politics is the new church.
Only this church is a popularity game to decide who controls a vast federal standing domestic army of armed police, as well as an outward projecting armed forces. The scary thing is that everyone seems to believe their church is correct, and willing to employ the machine of violence to enforce it.
This is kind of one of the points Jonathan Rauch made in his book "Cross Purposes"[0]. He talks about how the common zeitgeist went from being christian and conservative to being christian because you were a conservative and because of that people are treating politics with the same fervor that they would have treated religion in the past.
[0] https://www.amazon.com/Cross-Purposes-Christianitys-Bargain-...
It's certainly true about a certain kind of evangelical Christian who doesn't go to church [1] but it's also true about many of the left-coded groups that started out on Twitter and Tumblr and moved on to Mastodon and Bluesky. For that matter it was true about Marxism back in the day, The God that Failed [2] was a criticism that took this tack.
My current feeling is that there's nothing more dangerous than "Man's Search for Meaning" and if people can't find meaning in the little things they do every day that search for meaning inevitably leads to trouble.
[1] often the ones who actually go to church are these kind of people: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:dx3ay6rcqediw2gbhb4bp76l/po...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_God_that_Failed
It's funny, Hoppe wrote a similarly named book about the same issues with democracy.
I'm surprised that so many of the 26 participants in the paper's study were young and well-educated, with a mean age of 48. I would have guessed a much older group of victims.
The cons play the statistics, and usually target people that have other issues in their life. One kind lady we knew had early Alzheimer's disease, and they still ran a crypto investor scam and fake police funds recovery con. Yes, the scams actually work on smart people too sometimes...
It is not about education or IQ level, but rather if cons target someone currently vulnerable. Note: the 7 spear-phishers on YC are rather obvious in an attempt to avoid IT people. =3
> cons target someone currently vulnerable
This. I am a senior software dev, living in Switzerland. Few years ago there was an issue with my residence permit renewal, process that should have taken few weeks took more than a year. No way to contact that Geneva immigration office, and you can't visit them personally, emails ignored. Official phone contact is just a single phone that often rang few times and then dropped the call, 19 out of 20 times. Few times it was picked up clearly annoyed and couldn't-be-bothered woman who just told me to wait, no further info. My boss applied for same after me, got the papers in 3 weeks.
Me and my kids (who have same permit as me) were basically living in Switzerland semi-illegally, while sporting high paying permanent banking job and wife is a doctor.
One day a call came which introduced themselves as Swiss police, a very elaborate scheme, stating that my ID was used in fraud and I am being investigated. They caught me in this period of fear of getting deported, ruining efforts of past 15 years and my whole family lives. I followed through, they were very clever, pulled just the right strings.
But then came the moment when all this could be solved if I just went to the shop and bought... Apple gift card. LOL. But man I felt extremely vulnerable and under tremendous stress during those few hours.
Yeah, I remember a friend getting a call during coworking and her face just went white, and after the call she told us that was the tax people calling about irregularities (she had moved countries and was slow in sorting out her tax situation), and we all bought it - there was no sober "oh yeah it's a scam" advice from us - it was really perfectly timed, and took a day or to for her to reason through that it must be a scam. (No money lost though!)
AML/KYC laws have done us a big favour. Otherwise that would be a bank txn they would ask for. And now buying $200 of gift cards as an actual gift is impossible (in physical space)
On the other hand, many companies outsource their AML/KYC as it's a cost center. And your passport, face, bills, address is stored in a server with dubious encryption, handled by poorly paid service reps.
You can google the many data breaches of such data. Great for scams.
Always verify a wire details through an initiated call to a verified number of the legitimate institution in question.
My country has AML law, but all the time people are tricked into wiring money to scammer for a house or something else because they take wire details by spoofed e-mail or a received phone call.
The scammers are very clever, they will monitor e-mail from a title company or some other company with large invoices, then trick you at the exact moment you are making a legitimate transaction to a legitimate institution. Because you did not make a mistake sending the wire, nor did the bank, only sent it to exactly the wrong person, once the wire gets forwarded on out of country you're often SOL.
Many scammers have sources in government agencies, companies, insurance companies, etc.
The day my mother asked to receive her pension, she received calls from scammers, even though she had been relatively spared until then. I have had similar feedback from people who have to call for help with mental health, depression or addiction issues.
These people have no scruples and are willing to pay others without much hesitation.
Correct. There is more verification buying a beer at some pubs than sending $1m.
> AML/KYC laws have done us a big favour.
And crypto, needless to say, enables these pig butchering scams (and others). The Economist estimates the scam industry to rake in about $500 bn a year.
We are all vulnerable at some point. I'd even go as far as saying we all fall for something at some point. Even if it's something small the psychological effect can be large, and there can be a lot of shame, so many do not share their experience.
I know an engineer in his 30s who had a “girlfriend” somewhere in Asia and he would send her money regularly. They had been “together” for 2 years but never met. He even knew that something was probably wrong but did it anyways out of desperation.
Was curious of the etymology of name of the scam:
> The term comes from fraudsters referring to their victims as 'pigs' – those they gradually 'fatten up' by luring them into a fake romance or friendship before 'butchering' them by convincing them to invest, often in fake cryptocurrency schemes.
Source: https://www.interpol.int/en/News-and-Events/News/2024/INTERP...
Oh, I had never gotten the "fatten up" part of the analogy before.
I often get these 'Is this <random_name>?' messages on telegram, from usually what appears to be a beautiful woman.
I always answer on the positive, it is very fun to see them try to ask a question that will make me answer 'no that's not me' so they can continue on the next part. Can recommend.
Lol, that's great. I got one that was something like "Are you still coming for dinner? The chicken is just finished baking." It sounded delicious, I wanted it so badly to be real haha
I got one of those scam texts last week that begin with "Dad save my new number..." it then escalated to where they asked for money.
(I knew it wasn't genuine as I'm still paying for my daughter's cellphone)
Anyway, I played a long for a bit but finally told them that I knew it wasn't genuine as my daughter is not that polite when she asks for money.
The age old "hey it's me ur brother" scam.
The oldest version I heard of was in Japan in the 1990s. Scammers would call elderly people, claiming to be grandchildren, and demand money or they would be arrested/scandalized.
It was called the "ore ore" (pronounced "o-ray o-ray") scam because they would typically use the word "ore" for "I", a familiar and often brusque or aggressive form of the first person singular.
This is also well known here in Hungary, there was even movie about it. It's called "unokázás"; literally: "grandchilding".
When you start learning a little more about pig butchering scams and the organisations which run them, it gets extremely harrowing. There are literally hundreds of thousands of people being forced to work in these online scams across Myanmar and Cambodia under threat of violence or worse. The human cost to both sides of this practice is staggering.
My dad passed away about three weeks after being fully pig-butchered, losing all of his money and reputation with family/friends. We all tried to talk him out of it, but it was like he joined a cult, for he cut us off and lost his mind. The whole sorry saga is very hard to live with. The sums of money were vast, cocaine addiction would have been a more cost effective way to go.
The pig-butchers had some type of bot/AI/wage slaves for the backend and they used Zendesk for the frontend. I am not happy that Zendesk is being used to basically rob people and I am minded to write up the whole sorry saga here just to inspire developers to steer their companies away from the Zendesk product. They didn't shoot my dad, they just sold the gun.
They are using actual slaves, not "wage slaves". They kidnap people, lured for work in Thailand, and take them to Myanmar/Burma, where there is a civil war ongoing and a form of lawlessness; while there is a relatively good internet connectivity and electricity. They beat people and force them to do this.
It's mostly run by Chinese. (But they scam Chinese too. It originated as scamming older single Chinese ladies, actually.)
> It's mostly run by Chinese. (But they scam Chinese too. It originated as scamming older single Chinese ladies, actually.)
This comment suggests that the main target would be non-Chinese, with some incidental Chinese targets/victims. I think the reality is the opposite, and that the primary targets are Chinese, with some incidental Western victims, for the simple reason that both the perpetrators and the (involutary) scam workers are largely far more fluent in Chinese and knowlegable about Chinese financial systems, culture, etc.
Both in mainland China and other countries with large ethnic Chinese populations, there is quite some awareness and media information these issues, e.g.:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_More_Bets
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/323544...
https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/08/30/1078663/pig-butc...
p.s.: From casual conversations with European friends, there are probably smaller scale "native" versions of such scams in many Western countries. Large scam centers with imprissoned workers might be somewhat specific to Chinese/Cambodia.
No. The Chinese perpetrators might have targeted predominantly Chinese victims originally, but not for quite some time.
First, China has vigorously cracked down on crypto, and secondly, it has engaged in large scale information campaigns and PSA warning about these scams.
The people trapped in the scam centres are often English speakers, such as from the Philippines, India, Hong Kong, anglophone African countries, etc., targeting Western countries, or nationals of the target countries, e.g. Thailand or Vietnam.
The Chinese gangsters, like Russian hackers, now prefer to target foreigners.
If you want to know more, I can recommend the usual books about crypto, the podcast and article series on Scam Inc by The Economist, and Martin Purbrink’s substack.
https://asiacrimecentury.substack.com/
https://asiacrimecentury.substack.com/p/scam-inc-explaining-...
https://asiacrimecentury.substack.com/p/betting-on-chaos-the...
Actually no. Cyprus was where we got scammed from. I think there might be a bit of 'yellow peril' going on in your imagination.
Interesting. I guess the scam centers moved now.
It's not my imagination, these scam centeres in Myanmar definitely exist and kidnap and scam people, I guess they also moved to other countries now though.
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Sorry to hear this happened to your father especially with such a dire conclusion. Hopefully writing about it will give you some catharsis and help someone else, plus maybe get Zendesk to crack down on the use of their product.
I'm interested in more details!
The Scam Inc podcast from the Economist was very interesting. You need an Economist subscription, unfortunately.
Amazing how much infrastructure is built up to support these operations.
https://www.economist.com/audio/podcasts/scam-inc
NPR Planet Money did a segment on pig butchering scams back in May. They played along with one to get a first hand perspective of the process. It’s a fascinating listen, way more complicated than I thought, and tragic for both ends of the scam.
https://www.npr.org/2025/05/23/1253043749/pig-butchering-sca...
We should teach/learn resisting scams in school. Far more useful than any other subject.
> We should teach/learn resisting scams in school. Far more useful than any other subject.
A lot of people actually are scammers - and this is socially accepted. What is the difference between the "everyday scams" and the scams from this article is rather the scope.
Thus, to make people scam-resistant, you have to make them insanely distrusting about everybody in society (or to express it more directly: make the people paranoid and near-schizophrenic), including the government, the politicians etc.
Since school serves an agenda, this is of course not done.
This. "Scam resistance", in my mind, maps to critical thinking and a bit of pattern matching. Could definitely be taught, but critical thinking seems to be out of favor in (American) education at the moment (and has been for a while, honestly).
Resisting propaganda was taught in schools in the '40s. Read about it here:
https://archive.org/details/IPAVol1
It is not quite so terrible as to need to make everyone distrustful.
There is an old saying: "You can't scam an honest man." I think a lot of people misunderstand this; it is not that being honest somehow lets you just know when you're being scammed. Indeed the natural "surely they'd be even more vulnerable" probably has some truth to it in some sense.
What it means is that the vast bulk of scams involve convincing the mark that they are dishonestly pulling off a scam. You pay $400 and you're going to get $millions. She misidentified you as someone else but hey you're just so amazingly charismatic that she's into you anyhow, and if you just pour a few more hundreds in she's totally going to let you sleep with her. You know you never entered that lottery, but hey, if they're going to make a mistake and say you won who are you to argue, right?
Not everything fits into this; one classic that affects businesses more than individuals is Ye Olde Just Issue An Invoice And Hope They Pay It. There are also some scams around posing with varying degrees of fidelity as a specific individual you know, such as by hacking their emails and sending this out as them, although in many cases that's still just a delivery mechanism for a scam based on convincing the mark they're going to pull a scam.
A solution that will make you highly resistant to scams, though as I am saying outright, not immune, is to realize that you will not get anything for free, to refuse to participate, to be aggressively honest even if it seems to hurt you. Perhaps ironically, or perhaps counter to your intuition, in the modern world, such aggressive honesty will on the net benefit you by protecting you from these scams. The same ethics that make you give $5 back to the cashier that they gave you in extra change will save you hundreds of thousands in a pig butchering scam.
In the modern era it probably is getting more important to verify identities even of people you know, which is a new and developing angle.
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Then the scams would simply change.
Once I got suckered into at least texting one of these scammers. Had just got a new phone number, assumed it was the usual trying to reach the previous owner of the number, then all of a sudden they started talking about crypto, and it's ciao from my end...
Just blocked anyone I didn't know after that and after 3-4 numbers it stopped forever.
I've saved at least one elderly person from giving "Elon Musk" $100k for the secret bitcoin mining operation he's building, as Elon explained to them in the deepfake. "Elon" apparently has secret telegram accounts too.
The scammers worked with additional people who met them in the real world.
Someone else's elderly father wasn't so lucky: they kept sending all their life savings to the scammers, until the wife divorced him and the family suffered so much.
If they’re paying out ”bait gains”, aren’t these just ponzis like Bernie Madoff?
They usually dont pay out anything. It's just target's "investment account" value grows until they want to withdraw. Obviously some scammers can even pay something at first, but it's just not usual strategy.
In the article it says some victims were allowed to withdraw small amounts, and one says he got it as a gift card. So that's where all those gift cards from the email scams go...
Are there not some more direct interventions?
I know of a building housing one of these. Obviously they pay the local police and have cover so just filing a complaint or whatever is not an option.
The article states than an estimated 75 billion dollars have been lost since 2020, the corruption goes way beyond local cops, and in Myanmar probably involves the government directly. Whole cities are being built for scamming. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/sep/08/m...
I believe Cambodia is another case where the government is directly involved.
The question is are there any effective interventions, short of war (which, happened), given that.
That’s probably an underestimate. The Economist estimates “Scam Inc.” to pull half a trillion a year.
Well yes, I believe some interventions happened awhile ago in Myanmar in the form of war between factions.
Was that not just a power grab?
There is a more recent conflict over this issue in Cambodia.
I'm thinking more targeted interventions. International organizations and so on.
Failing that, maybe accidentally short the xformer supplying the building...
Wondering if it were feasible to vibe-code a Bot that would engage and invest the little sums that yield those bait gains, and harvest those. Eject at the right time.
Great original idea, you should make a Beowulf Cluster of them! With a Java Applet!
This made me taste cringe. It’s orange flavoured and weirdly acidic like something the dentist used on me when I was 7.
Didn't know the meaning of "pig-butchering scam", so I took it at its front value and was a bit confused.
Frankly, I am shocked by this. I don’t mean that to criticise you or others that didn’t know the term, but the quality of the discourse/media.
Pig butchering and related crypto scams are an enormous problem. Latest estimates are that the cyber scam industry revenues exceed the illegal drug trade. There are so many victims, both cyber trafficking victims promised great jobs then forced to perpetrate the scams, as well as victims handing over huge sums. Both suffer not only financial loss, but psychological damage.
Lastly, this threatens to destabilize whole countries - as the narcos screwed up Colombia and Mexico, so these scammers are screwing up the Philippines, Cambodia, Myanmar etc.
Again, that such a massive problem is so little known is in itself scandalous.
Myanmar was already a failed state. The scammers just took advantage of the anarchy and corruption.
Same here (I am French, so the language is yet another barrier). I thought this was about viral actions by extreme ecologists that get into butchering companies and expose how the animals suffer.
And I thought - "these are scams?" But hey, everything is possible.
And then got to the comments and learned a few things :) The article is very good and the comments as well.
A croire que c'est un problème de compréhension uniquement chez nous autres pauvres Français !
Bah ouias, j'avais les actions de L-quelque chose en tête mais non :)
I did same at first but then recognized it as something that has affected family members. Would be nice to find a name that is a little more respectful to the victims. I can tell you victims already have guilt/shame for falling for these things. I would send them the article but don’t want to call them “pigs” on top of what they have already suffered
In case anyone else lives under a rock like me, this is only metaphorically linked to swine. Filed under TIL.
My wife was a victim of two of these.
I posted about it here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45037474
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A relative of mine fell victim to one of these.
Their "relationship" developed over about 1 yr, and which point they sent ~£30k to temporarily cover a cashflow shortfall in their scammer's apparently legitimate business.
This was quickly detected by their spouse, who was obviously livid.
However..... not only did they transfer these funds to some limbo, and had received extremely clear advice that they had been scammed, they did the same thing with another ~£30k about a month later.
The funds so transferred went to some account in China.
The repetition of this "aberrant" behavior contributed to the divorce of my relative and their spouse.
In later conversations with the victim, who did eventually realize that they had been scammed, I attempted to reassure them by saying that these scammers are very skilled, and that they were innocent in the whole affair. It was small consolation, though.
This is just an extremely well written paper.
lol I’ve gotten this question. For me, they wanted to invite me to this bad mobile game
"I love you honey. Hey, let's play Raid Shadow Legends™, my Favourite Game Ever together! If you sign up with this link you get one hundred gold and a Free Epic Champion <3"
What contemporary economic ideology has taught me: If it sounds too good to be true, it usually isn't. And the Venn diagram of scams and business is almost a circle in a sense that companies and criminals don't have your interests in mind. There's really no reason to trust either.
> If it sounds too good to be true, it usually isn't.
it usually IS
Different bracketing.
"If it sounds too good to be true, it usually isn't (true)"
vs
"If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is (too good to be true)"
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The cycle time seems rather long, in the order of months to years (See table 1 on pg 18 of the paper).
Who is working on AI agents startup to automate this? /s
They probably use AI quite a lot.