First: Are these constant dollars? Or nominal dollars? Maybe there should be a toggle?
Second: I suggest you extend the historical time horizon by a decade, as it will help to demonstrate how Prop. 98 and the insane rise of K-12 spending have totally fucked our budget.
Now it looks like Medi-Cal, services for intellectually disabled people, and "Other HHS programs" will fuck our budget even harder in the coming decade.
Finally: I suggest adding per-beneficiary metrics for all services, where possible. How has the K-12 spending per pupil changed? How will developmental services spending per disabled person change? How much has Medi-Care spending risen per enrolled person?
I guess I'm ignorant but why do we continue overspending worldwide?
Like do these groups all have heavy metrics about how budget is growing so we actually know anything is in balance here?
I guess I've never seen proper studies around:
"We project tax revenue will grow X amount with this level of confidence therefore we know we can consistently be within Y range of debt growth forever safely"
Or are we all just hoping we all die before someone has to comes in and cuts services spending in half?
> I guess I'm ignorant but why do we continue overspending worldwide?
Social programs are popular with voters (well, the ones who benefit from them without paying sticker price), no one ever wants to take a step backwards in lifestyle (especially government employees), and there’s an unwavering belief that any amount of spending is “fine”, all we need are those damned rich people to pay their fair share.
Can you explain the 8B YOY increase in higher education for 23-24 to 24-25? It doesn't add up anywhere in the subcategories either. It's just magically 8B higher. It actually went down 0.4B if you add the subcategories.
A giant red flag here... That's half the net budget deficit. So... might want to explain it.
Give Anthropic’s frontend design skill a try. I find it helps Claude produce excellent UI’s.
I did use it for this project! While the UI was good, there was a lot of last mile debugging to make charts/animations/responsiveness work well.
Thanks for making this. Is the code for this available somewhere public?
Can this be backdated any further? This is neat. It would be really interesting to know if 2023 looked like 2033 in 2013, if that makes sense.
Great tool!
First: Are these constant dollars? Or nominal dollars? Maybe there should be a toggle?
Second: I suggest you extend the historical time horizon by a decade, as it will help to demonstrate how Prop. 98 and the insane rise of K-12 spending have totally fucked our budget.
Now it looks like Medi-Cal, services for intellectually disabled people, and "Other HHS programs" will fuck our budget even harder in the coming decade.
Finally: I suggest adding per-beneficiary metrics for all services, where possible. How has the K-12 spending per pupil changed? How will developmental services spending per disabled person change? How much has Medi-Care spending risen per enrolled person?
I guess I'm ignorant but why do we continue overspending worldwide?
Like do these groups all have heavy metrics about how budget is growing so we actually know anything is in balance here?
I guess I've never seen proper studies around:
"We project tax revenue will grow X amount with this level of confidence therefore we know we can consistently be within Y range of debt growth forever safely"
Or are we all just hoping we all die before someone has to comes in and cuts services spending in half?
> I guess I'm ignorant but why do we continue overspending worldwide?
Social programs are popular with voters (well, the ones who benefit from them without paying sticker price), no one ever wants to take a step backwards in lifestyle (especially government employees), and there’s an unwavering belief that any amount of spending is “fine”, all we need are those damned rich people to pay their fair share.
Lots of Californians do not benefit from social programs but support them anyway.
Do they have a choice?
Can you explain the 8B YOY increase in higher education for 23-24 to 24-25? It doesn't add up anywhere in the subcategories either. It's just magically 8B higher. It actually went down 0.4B if you add the subcategories.
A giant red flag here... That's half the net budget deficit. So... might want to explain it.
There was a one-time appropriation change that wasn't part of the standard budget creation process.
https://edsource.org/2026/newsoms-last-budget-as-governor-wo...
Essentially, the AI economy has massively increased expected 2025 tax rolls.