Thanks for your question. It's Monte Carlo, so individual simulated tournaments produce all sorts of champions, Argentina wins ~28% of the 100k iterations. What's stable is the aggregate: Argentina and Spain consistently come out as the two highest-probability teams, and that barely moves across different seeds.
Did it confidently predict the same finalists consistently in every iteration? Or did it sometimes give different answers?
Thanks for your question. It's Monte Carlo, so individual simulated tournaments produce all sorts of champions, Argentina wins ~28% of the 100k iterations. What's stable is the aggregate: Argentina and Spain consistently come out as the two highest-probability teams, and that barely moves across different seeds.
Link to preprint: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=7013338 Constructive feedback very much appreciated!