> "The prediction was that software engineers would lose their jobs first, and the recent trend went the other way: demand for software engineers is higher than ever"
Hard to take anything the author says seriously making nonsensical claims like this. The software engineering job market has been getting worse every year since 2022 by virtually every metric. This is especially true at the entry and mid level. For example, computer engineering and computer science majors now have the #2 and #4 highest unemployment rates amongst recent graduates [1]
Students are smart to be cautious about the future, and it's annoying that adults with no skin in the game so flippantly dismiss these concerns without any data to back it up.
The market rebound appears to be mostly in senior roles [1] while everyone else are falling out of favor including new grads. Definitely puts the "higher than ever" claim in question. Indeed is looking at job postings data and I personally think this is a poor unit of measure. In my humble opinion the market isn't anywhere near where it used to be even several years prior to the pandemic.
Even before AI we were trending toward an economy with very few entry level jobs anywhere. AI is supercharging this, and I can easily now imagine a future where there's basically zero (good) jobs for anyone who isn't an expert.
So how do we get the next generation of senior professionals then?
This, I think, is a civilization-scale problem we will need to confront in the next 20-ish years.
The number of graduates has grown even more dramatically. The job market not being able to keep up with that could make both your and the OP's statements correct.
I can't speak for the graduate or American market, but I can tell you the market for reasonably experienced software people in London is hot. Loads of hiring and salaries are going up.
> What has to go is the paper as the unit of achievement, the thing that gets counted and compared. If the ecosystem is the unit of research, then building something that other people can build on has to count for more than the next increment.
The focus on building stuff as the measure of accomplishment is one reason I so enjoyed being at CMU a few decades ago, so I'm very happy to see this sentiment is still expressed by the new generation of faculty.
'In one of my classes I asked the question I was afraid to ask but I just needed the answer to: “Who is afraid of not getting a job after graduating?” About eighty percent of the 150 people in the room raised their hands. That is roughly 120 students answering, in one motion, that they do not believe there is a place for them in the future.'
It's quite a leap to go from "I'm afraid of not getting a job after graduating" to "I do not believe there is a place for me in the future". Maybe it hasn't been the case for computer scientists in the past decade, but it's pretty normal to be worried about getting a job after graduating from one's college problem, even if one knows that most people get jobs when they graduate.
I stopped reading soon after that, when it became obvious that the article was LLM-written.
I think it’s particularly infuriating when you sit down, and decide to read something off the reputation of an author (or their institution), only to find out that their writing has a complete disregard for your attention and time…
You will always need some fundamental basis of understanding. You cannot bake a new kind of cake if you do not know what preheating is. I believe that is why they give the PhD example. The bulk of education comes before a PhD. You cannot start with a complex problem and be expected to solve it without acquiring knowledge beforehand.
If you want masses of people to be unable to think for themselves, be dependent on you for answers, and be unable to tell when you lie to them it's a very good idea to prioritize having an answer over understanding the steps needed to arrive at it.
I think one of AI’s biggest effects is simply that it makes people realize even high-income professionals can lose their positions.
This also follows from how current LLMs work. In practice, when I use them in domains I already understand, they can produce very high-quality results. But in domains I do not know well, the results can be poor, and the bigger problem is that I may not even be able to judge how poor they are.
So my conclusion is that AI will reduce the number of jobs, but it will not eliminate the need for people.
In education, the value of memorization may decline in the AI era. We may instead place more emphasis on domain modeling, problem framing, or the ability to choose and use tools effectively. But the more fundamental issue is that the IT industry may simply lose the capacity to employ as many people as it once did.
More precisely, I mean white-collar labor.
I think the deeper cause is a K-shaped economy in which the lower and middle classes become poorer. When ordinary consumers become poorer, one of the first things they tend to cut back on is discretionary spending, including spending on many kinds of IT services.
The core infrastructure layer is different. Large incumbents such as Microsoft and Google already dominate much of it, and they are likely to be more resilient. Search, video consumption, and a few other essential digital services will also remain strong. But many other IT services are, in practice, discretionary goods. Those companies may be hit much harder if consumers have less purchasing power.
People talk constantly about productivity these days, but we were already living in an age of overproduction before AI. AI is moving us from overproduction into an era of explosive production. The problem is that production can expand far faster than people’s ability to consume.
The cycle is supposed to be:
*products → revenue → employment*
But if the consumers who are supposed to support that revenue become poorer, the cycle weakens. Productivity alone cannot solve that.
I agree with the author that academics need to move beyond treating papers as the primary unit of achievement. Much of what the article argues is reasonable.
But there is another difficulty. Most academics built their reputations through papers. They use that reputation to obtain speaking opportunities, consulting work, grants, and other forms of income and status. Even if one person decides to move beyond the paper-centered system, it is difficult to change much unless the larger incentive structure changes as well.
My view is that IT workers have, in a sense, been working to reduce their own jobs since long before AI. The more infrastructure becomes centralized, the more peripheral and smaller companies are squeezed first. AI is simply another example of that process.
Until recently, people often said that highly skilled IT professionals were difficult to replace. AI changes that perception. Even when it does not fully replace knowledge workers, it can put significant downward pressure on the wage premium attached to specialized knowledge.
I do think AI will raise productivity. But companies will also reduce headcount accordingly. And if purchasing power becomes increasingly concentrated among a smaller group of people, product development itself may become more biased toward the preferences of those few consumers. That can create another negative feedback loop.
The claim that universities can simply choose important problems that are cheap to validate is also more difficult than it sounds.
If validation itself increasingly depends on AI, and universities cannot afford to own enough GPUs, then they remain dependent on large AI companies. That dependency will inevitably influence which research problems are practical to pursue.
Any research program is constrained by the institutions and funding sources that make the research possible. Always.
At the same time, I actually agree with the author that universities will become more important.
People often talk about “skill” as though it were some pure and independent quantity, but in my experience hiring rarely works that way. If one candidate is highly capable without a degree and another is equally capable with a degree, employers will usually prefer the credentialed candidate.
More broadly, people tend to hire those with whom they feel cultural familiarity and trust. University networks provide exactly that. Alumni often help other alumni, directly or indirectly.
So I think universities may increasingly become both social institutions and stronger elite-training clubs.
For someone like me, coming from a poorer country and without much money, there may not be many choices in that system anyway.
Still, I think the author’s argument is far too optimistic.
> The other story arrives by email. PhD students who cannot wait to graduate, because they want to join a frontier lab and they have concluded that research in academia is meaningless. They are counting the years until they can leave.
> I believe both stories are wrong, and wrong for the same reason. They assume the future of research belongs to whoever has the most GPUs.
As a current grad student in an mlsys lab, the sentiment is definitely true. However, I think the root cause is almost certainly not the lack of GPUs in academia, at least it's not the complete reason. The problem is the most important innovations really come from the industry right now. If you want to work on LLM inference serving, it is the frontier labs or hyperscalers that have the most incentives to solve the problems because improving the TPOT by 1% can save them tons of money. It is also much easier to catch up with the fast-growing field if you are in the industry because you get to talk to so many insiders (at least that has been my experience during the summer internship).
Papers only amplify this problem. Traditionally, academia is supposed to work on radical ideas that industries don't want to try. In recent years, these ideas are harder to get in as papers because the quality of peer review at top conferences is awful nowadays.
I'm not even going to talk about the AI slops in research papers and their artifacts. Guess why I'm posting on HN right now instead of working?
Finally, it's very disappointing to see that a professor at top school is so careless about editing stuff created by LLM. He might be busy, but the number of people that get discouraged by the LLM writing style will hurt his purpose of promoting the open source week. And apparently some people from industry had a better sense of that [1]. Yet another example of why some people prefer industry to academia these days.
> If you are a student, you have to let go of the idea that you first acquire skills and basic knowledge and then solve problems
and my brain instantly equated it to "we want a new graduate with 30 years of experience." You always will need to build some basis of fundamentals before you can solve problems.
Big claims require and all, but he's an Asst. Prof at CMU, so not the usual suspect for AIP - and presumably there's pudding on the way given the description of this "Open Source Week" thingy. Will be interesting to see what comes out...
We've seen many reputable people experience AI psychosis in public (and I can only imagine the number of instances in private). I don't know exactly what combination of factors leads to it, but I don't think being intelligent or educated or being an asst. professor at CMU grants immunity.
Employees at AI companies have fallen prey to it. The world's most famous biologist fell prey to it. Many people involved in tech have fallen prey to it. Check the "new" page here to see many examples in progress.
Slop gets produced at just about every level. A week ago: some promotor of a product looking for funding did the 'Claude write me a rebuttal' thing to some stuff that was off-center and it made them look really silly. This wasn't exactly a small op either and yet, apparently the higher ups at these places are just fine being represented like that. I'm surprised that CMU doesn't have a policy on this (and if they do that it isn't followed).
It's human writing, lots of typos. But, the grandiose claims of revolutionary discoveries without evidence raises questions. Might be true, and if so, it's big. But...
And yet this linked page is filled with AI slop tells, annoyingly, so it makes it hard to separate the wheat from the chaff in terms of useful information.
> "The prediction was that software engineers would lose their jobs first, and the recent trend went the other way: demand for software engineers is higher than ever"
Hard to take anything the author says seriously making nonsensical claims like this. The software engineering job market has been getting worse every year since 2022 by virtually every metric. This is especially true at the entry and mid level. For example, computer engineering and computer science majors now have the #2 and #4 highest unemployment rates amongst recent graduates [1]
Students are smart to be cautious about the future, and it's annoying that adults with no skin in the game so flippantly dismiss these concerns without any data to back it up.
[1] https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market?utm...
The market rebound appears to be mostly in senior roles [1] while everyone else are falling out of favor including new grads. Definitely puts the "higher than ever" claim in question. Indeed is looking at job postings data and I personally think this is a poor unit of measure. In my humble opinion the market isn't anywhere near where it used to be even several years prior to the pandemic.
[1] https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/07/08/ai-and-job-postings-...
Even before AI we were trending toward an economy with very few entry level jobs anywhere. AI is supercharging this, and I can easily now imagine a future where there's basically zero (good) jobs for anyone who isn't an expert.
So how do we get the next generation of senior professionals then?
This, I think, is a civilization-scale problem we will need to confront in the next 20-ish years.
The bet seems to be that the seniors are next.
The number of graduates has grown even more dramatically. The job market not being able to keep up with that could make both your and the OP's statements correct.
I can't speak for the graduate or American market, but I can tell you the market for reasonably experienced software people in London is hot. Loads of hiring and salaries are going up.
Market got saturated by too many grads, like in the early 2000s.
In a few years it'll quiet down again
> What has to go is the paper as the unit of achievement, the thing that gets counted and compared. If the ecosystem is the unit of research, then building something that other people can build on has to count for more than the next increment.
The focus on building stuff as the measure of accomplishment is one reason I so enjoyed being at CMU a few decades ago, so I'm very happy to see this sentiment is still expressed by the new generation of faculty.
'In one of my classes I asked the question I was afraid to ask but I just needed the answer to: “Who is afraid of not getting a job after graduating?” About eighty percent of the 150 people in the room raised their hands. That is roughly 120 students answering, in one motion, that they do not believe there is a place for them in the future.'
It's quite a leap to go from "I'm afraid of not getting a job after graduating" to "I do not believe there is a place for me in the future". Maybe it hasn't been the case for computer scientists in the past decade, but it's pretty normal to be worried about getting a job after graduating from one's college problem, even if one knows that most people get jobs when they graduate.
I stopped reading soon after that, when it became obvious that the article was LLM-written.
CMU is #2 in the country for CS program. If those students don't think they can find a job, it's bleak.
s/CSU/CMU
thanks, fixed
Yeah,
I believe both stories are wrong, and wrong for the same reason.
In this day and age, anyone who writes their own essays would never write that.
I checked out at
“ This week is our argument for that claim, and we are making it in code rather than in prose.”
I think it’s particularly infuriating when you sit down, and decide to read something off the reputation of an author (or their institution), only to find out that their writing has a complete disregard for your attention and time…
I did spot two errors in the text:
> With agents, research per projects have become easy and quick.
Either my English is failing me or that is a weird sentence.
And then there is 'wee' in
> If you ask me what a small lab can do today, wee will show you three things:
Which I'm more confident is an error.
> you have to let go of the idea that you first acquire skills and basic knowledge and then solve problems. The order reverses.
^ this
You will always need some fundamental basis of understanding. You cannot bake a new kind of cake if you do not know what preheating is. I believe that is why they give the PhD example. The bulk of education comes before a PhD. You cannot start with a complex problem and be expected to solve it without acquiring knowledge beforehand.
you have to know the answer is 4 before learning to add 2 + 2. see how that sounds?
If you want masses of people to be unable to think for themselves, be dependent on you for answers, and be unable to tell when you lie to them it's a very good idea to prioritize having an answer over understanding the steps needed to arrive at it.
Nothing here but some nice claims.
https://github.com/bitsandbytes-foundation/bitsandbytes
I think one of AI’s biggest effects is simply that it makes people realize even high-income professionals can lose their positions.
This also follows from how current LLMs work. In practice, when I use them in domains I already understand, they can produce very high-quality results. But in domains I do not know well, the results can be poor, and the bigger problem is that I may not even be able to judge how poor they are.
So my conclusion is that AI will reduce the number of jobs, but it will not eliminate the need for people.
In education, the value of memorization may decline in the AI era. We may instead place more emphasis on domain modeling, problem framing, or the ability to choose and use tools effectively. But the more fundamental issue is that the IT industry may simply lose the capacity to employ as many people as it once did.
More precisely, I mean white-collar labor.
I think the deeper cause is a K-shaped economy in which the lower and middle classes become poorer. When ordinary consumers become poorer, one of the first things they tend to cut back on is discretionary spending, including spending on many kinds of IT services.
The core infrastructure layer is different. Large incumbents such as Microsoft and Google already dominate much of it, and they are likely to be more resilient. Search, video consumption, and a few other essential digital services will also remain strong. But many other IT services are, in practice, discretionary goods. Those companies may be hit much harder if consumers have less purchasing power.
People talk constantly about productivity these days, but we were already living in an age of overproduction before AI. AI is moving us from overproduction into an era of explosive production. The problem is that production can expand far faster than people’s ability to consume.
The cycle is supposed to be:
*products → revenue → employment*
But if the consumers who are supposed to support that revenue become poorer, the cycle weakens. Productivity alone cannot solve that.
I agree with the author that academics need to move beyond treating papers as the primary unit of achievement. Much of what the article argues is reasonable.
But there is another difficulty. Most academics built their reputations through papers. They use that reputation to obtain speaking opportunities, consulting work, grants, and other forms of income and status. Even if one person decides to move beyond the paper-centered system, it is difficult to change much unless the larger incentive structure changes as well.
My view is that IT workers have, in a sense, been working to reduce their own jobs since long before AI. The more infrastructure becomes centralized, the more peripheral and smaller companies are squeezed first. AI is simply another example of that process.
Until recently, people often said that highly skilled IT professionals were difficult to replace. AI changes that perception. Even when it does not fully replace knowledge workers, it can put significant downward pressure on the wage premium attached to specialized knowledge.
I do think AI will raise productivity. But companies will also reduce headcount accordingly. And if purchasing power becomes increasingly concentrated among a smaller group of people, product development itself may become more biased toward the preferences of those few consumers. That can create another negative feedback loop.
The claim that universities can simply choose important problems that are cheap to validate is also more difficult than it sounds.
If validation itself increasingly depends on AI, and universities cannot afford to own enough GPUs, then they remain dependent on large AI companies. That dependency will inevitably influence which research problems are practical to pursue.
Any research program is constrained by the institutions and funding sources that make the research possible. Always.
At the same time, I actually agree with the author that universities will become more important.
People often talk about “skill” as though it were some pure and independent quantity, but in my experience hiring rarely works that way. If one candidate is highly capable without a degree and another is equally capable with a degree, employers will usually prefer the credentialed candidate.
More broadly, people tend to hire those with whom they feel cultural familiarity and trust. University networks provide exactly that. Alumni often help other alumni, directly or indirectly.
So I think universities may increasingly become both social institutions and stronger elite-training clubs.
For someone like me, coming from a poorer country and without much money, there may not be many choices in that system anyway.
Still, I think the author’s argument is far too optimistic.
Who's wee? The name of the system?
> The other story arrives by email. PhD students who cannot wait to graduate, because they want to join a frontier lab and they have concluded that research in academia is meaningless. They are counting the years until they can leave.
> I believe both stories are wrong, and wrong for the same reason. They assume the future of research belongs to whoever has the most GPUs.
As a current grad student in an mlsys lab, the sentiment is definitely true. However, I think the root cause is almost certainly not the lack of GPUs in academia, at least it's not the complete reason. The problem is the most important innovations really come from the industry right now. If you want to work on LLM inference serving, it is the frontier labs or hyperscalers that have the most incentives to solve the problems because improving the TPOT by 1% can save them tons of money. It is also much easier to catch up with the fast-growing field if you are in the industry because you get to talk to so many insiders (at least that has been my experience during the summer internship).
Papers only amplify this problem. Traditionally, academia is supposed to work on radical ideas that industries don't want to try. In recent years, these ideas are harder to get in as papers because the quality of peer review at top conferences is awful nowadays.
I'm not even going to talk about the AI slops in research papers and their artifacts. Guess why I'm posting on HN right now instead of working?
Finally, it's very disappointing to see that a professor at top school is so careless about editing stuff created by LLM. He might be busy, but the number of people that get discouraged by the LLM writing style will hurt his purpose of promoting the open source week. And apparently some people from industry had a better sense of that [1]. Yet another example of why some people prefer industry to academia these days.
[1] https://rfd.shared.oxide.computer/rfd/0576
Guess why I'm posting on HN right now instead of working?
because fable/astra is working for you? :)
Either this is slop or simply a badly produced piece of work
I chuckled a little when I read
> If you are a student, you have to let go of the idea that you first acquire skills and basic knowledge and then solve problems
and my brain instantly equated it to "we want a new graduate with 30 years of experience." You always will need to build some basis of fundamentals before you can solve problems.
Absent evidence, this reads like AI psychosis.
Big claims require and all, but he's an Asst. Prof at CMU, so not the usual suspect for AIP - and presumably there's pudding on the way given the description of this "Open Source Week" thingy. Will be interesting to see what comes out...
We've seen many reputable people experience AI psychosis in public (and I can only imagine the number of instances in private). I don't know exactly what combination of factors leads to it, but I don't think being intelligent or educated or being an asst. professor at CMU grants immunity.
Employees at AI companies have fallen prey to it. The world's most famous biologist fell prey to it. Many people involved in tech have fallen prey to it. Check the "new" page here to see many examples in progress.
Slop gets produced at just about every level. A week ago: some promotor of a product looking for funding did the 'Claude write me a rebuttal' thing to some stuff that was off-center and it made them look really silly. This wasn't exactly a small op either and yet, apparently the higher ups at these places are just fine being represented like that. I'm surprised that CMU doesn't have a policy on this (and if they do that it isn't followed).
'psychosis' might be a strong word, but definitely written or at least heavily edited by an LLM. I would guess Claude's writing style.
It's human writing, lots of typos. But, the grandiose claims of revolutionary discoveries without evidence raises questions. Might be true, and if so, it's big. But...
And yet this linked page is filled with AI slop tells, annoyingly, so it makes it hard to separate the wheat from the chaff in terms of useful information.