That level of idealism only works if the capitalist system heavily changes so the poor can afford to purchase “replicators” which do not exist today. As it is right now if AI/robots take your job you can easily wind up on the street unable to afford food, shelter, medical care
Because to feel useful, to have pride in your accomplishments, to rest well at night knowing you did a good days work feeds the soul. To have all human work matter no more than a zoo enrichment program would be the death knell of a sentient species.
In 2006 we weren't running with supercomputers and high definition cameras able to broadcast to the world within seconds of pulling it out...
Anyway, outside of tech, we're at the start of a Godzilla El Nino and 6 or 7 climate tipping points already tipped; there's a genocide while we're busy having influencer-induced FOMO (1), fascism rising and resource shortages aren't getting better (Guess why gas is so high at the moment...).
I find it unlikely that governments will just let majority of people starve to death. Both due to unrest and because someone has be able to buy stuff for the economy to function. UBI seems inevitable to me.
But also, I'm an antinatalist for unrelated reasons so would not have children either way.
I agree mostly, but people won't necessarily have to buy stuff in the future. If the rich can operate an autonomous supply chain from raw materials extraction to manufacture with AI and robots, then they don't even need the economy to function. They can just bypass a people-working economy altogether.
Many young people already can't afford houses and are in a terrible job market. The ladder got pulled from them a while ago and would love a revolution. Look at the people they idolise, it is either Elon (usually guys) or Mamdani. They want change.
People wonder why Trump and Bernie were so popular when he was campaigning. It’s the same reason. Sending tons of jobs to China starting in the 80s then nafta in the 90s left a lot of people behind and disrupted their lives. There were benefits from this policy but the sudden disruptions were tragic to a lot of families. The problem seems self-reinforcing when a far-right (or left) candidate is elected like Trump who exploits the desperate voters that elected him. It is important not to leave people behind or have them feel left behind. Contempt towards the less fortunate - eg Trumpers or those at the other side of culture issues - is counterproductive and misses the forces at play.
How many things from 30 years ago are still working without issue or regular maintenance.
Things will always change, there will always be jobs. AI will be a tool to use, good robots will be expensive, cheap robots will breakdown, everything will require some form of sales, management, maintenance etc.
I don't understand this perspective. Not all change is analogous to previous change. For instance, human beings invented the automatic rifle, but we never even thought of implementing a global non-profileration treaty like we tried with nuclear weapons.
AI could possibly throw the world into a great chaos. We've seen financial collapses before like the great depression. Who's to say that something even more disastrous couldn't happen with a tool that's unlike one we've ever seen before that can replace labor a lot faster than any tool we've ever seen before?
Tools are never just tools: they also influence the change of society to a great extent and societies have breaking points. Sales, management, and maintenance could eventually be automated also.
Lots of people would have sworn a decade ago that creative mathematical thinking was outside the domain of a machine. Now look what's happened.
I think you have to accept that life is full of change. The world all around you is changing and you are best prepared by not having a fixed mindset or rigid skill set.
Regardless of how automated parts of society become, there will always be a need for someone to do something.
You should always tinker and experiment with new things, that’s where you find opportunity.
But I think most of what is useful today to teach children (to be independent, persistent, empathetic, thoughtful, etc) will still be useful in whatever future we end up in. I think even skills that may be obsolete will probably be good for training their brain, like, perhaps speaking more languages won't help because we'll all have star-trek-like communicators, but the mental flexibility won't be wasted.
I'm not sure what will happen with higher studies, my kids are small. Maybe they'll study something and by the end of university there won't be a job market for it. But that could always happen, and some paths always had more career opportunities or less.
Beyond education, I try to save some money (invest in some global index fund) and hopefully that will help. I was always going to do that anyway, it just feels a bit more necessary now.
We’ve known about global warming for years and ignored it. People know and still buy bigger cars every year.
Pick up trucks are so huge now you can’t see the child you’re about to run over and they sell like hot cakes.
In surveys truck owners say they only care about occupant safety. They know about the issue for pedestrians, they just don’t care.
Same with shifting industrial production and jobs to China. We know these things are problems for the next generation. When it comes to purchases people don’t care.
The wealthy owners of tech companies and other businesses will keep maximizing profits, just as capitalism demands. I think my kids will be learning skilled trades instead. AI will never replace builders or electricians.
a) it's not twenty years from now, it's much less than that.
b) you cannot prevent that future, because the incentives are huge and enforcement is extremely hard, at all levels, from the superpowers to the individuals.
c) besides, imagine a world where most jobs are still being done by paid humans, all knowing that their work could be done much better and cheaper by a machine. Basically a world where your daily labour isn't really necessary but just a proof-of-work to get a monthly salary. Isn't that awful? I would rather take a pay cut on my last salary and use my time in a different way.
d) how will they make ends meet? Nobody knows. It might be a combination of everything being much cheaper and/or heavily subsidized, and some form of basic income.
I'm not worried, because the kids keep getting more handouts up front than our generation(s).
Remember, young adults - student loan relief was socialism as we hand out hundreds and thousands of Trump Accounts across the nation for the same thing to the next generation.
Why would we want to PREVENT that!?
We should just be paving the way for the necessary social safety net so they don't have to work and won't starve.
Not throw the baby out with the bath water. Who WANTS to have to work!?
That level of idealism only works if the capitalist system heavily changes so the poor can afford to purchase “replicators” which do not exist today. As it is right now if AI/robots take your job you can easily wind up on the street unable to afford food, shelter, medical care
Kurt Vonnegut, "Player Piano", tackles this.
Because to feel useful, to have pride in your accomplishments, to rest well at night knowing you did a good days work feeds the soul. To have all human work matter no more than a zoo enrichment program would be the death knell of a sentient species.
Those who can do something about it, they won't do anything as it's a power/money game for them. Those who care about it, they can barely do anything.
So, just prepare by saving money, investing and upskilling just to keep your brain sharp to figure it out when that future hits all of us.
The change between now and 20 years into future won't be anything spectacular than the change that happened over the last 20 years.
So, look back. How different was 2006? For me, it feels like it just happened last year.
So, don't get excited. The prophecies that begin with "X years from now,..." - never happen.
In 2006 we weren't running with supercomputers and high definition cameras able to broadcast to the world within seconds of pulling it out...
Anyway, outside of tech, we're at the start of a Godzilla El Nino and 6 or 7 climate tipping points already tipped; there's a genocide while we're busy having influencer-induced FOMO (1), fascism rising and resource shortages aren't getting better (Guess why gas is so high at the moment...).
(1) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFNtVaAuVYY
> The prophecies that begin with "X years from now,..." - never happen.
Don't worry from now, this one already happened. Ignorance is bliss.
It feels like last year but the tech is vastly different.
I find it unlikely that governments will just let majority of people starve to death. Both due to unrest and because someone has be able to buy stuff for the economy to function. UBI seems inevitable to me.
But also, I'm an antinatalist for unrelated reasons so would not have children either way.
I agree mostly, but people won't necessarily have to buy stuff in the future. If the rich can operate an autonomous supply chain from raw materials extraction to manufacture with AI and robots, then they don't even need the economy to function. They can just bypass a people-working economy altogether.
I'm more worried about TikTok than AI when it comes to future generations.
This ^
Many young people already can't afford houses and are in a terrible job market. The ladder got pulled from them a while ago and would love a revolution. Look at the people they idolise, it is either Elon (usually guys) or Mamdani. They want change.
People wonder why Trump and Bernie were so popular when he was campaigning. It’s the same reason. Sending tons of jobs to China starting in the 80s then nafta in the 90s left a lot of people behind and disrupted their lives. There were benefits from this policy but the sudden disruptions were tragic to a lot of families. The problem seems self-reinforcing when a far-right (or left) candidate is elected like Trump who exploits the desperate voters that elected him. It is important not to leave people behind or have them feel left behind. Contempt towards the less fortunate - eg Trumpers or those at the other side of culture issues - is counterproductive and misses the forces at play.
How many things from 30 years ago are still working without issue or regular maintenance.
Things will always change, there will always be jobs. AI will be a tool to use, good robots will be expensive, cheap robots will breakdown, everything will require some form of sales, management, maintenance etc.
I don't understand this perspective. Not all change is analogous to previous change. For instance, human beings invented the automatic rifle, but we never even thought of implementing a global non-profileration treaty like we tried with nuclear weapons.
AI could possibly throw the world into a great chaos. We've seen financial collapses before like the great depression. Who's to say that something even more disastrous couldn't happen with a tool that's unlike one we've ever seen before that can replace labor a lot faster than any tool we've ever seen before?
Tools are never just tools: they also influence the change of society to a great extent and societies have breaking points. Sales, management, and maintenance could eventually be automated also.
Lots of people would have sworn a decade ago that creative mathematical thinking was outside the domain of a machine. Now look what's happened.
I think you have to accept that life is full of change. The world all around you is changing and you are best prepared by not having a fixed mindset or rigid skill set.
Regardless of how automated parts of society become, there will always be a need for someone to do something.
You should always tinker and experiment with new things, that’s where you find opportunity.
Mildly worried.
But I think most of what is useful today to teach children (to be independent, persistent, empathetic, thoughtful, etc) will still be useful in whatever future we end up in. I think even skills that may be obsolete will probably be good for training their brain, like, perhaps speaking more languages won't help because we'll all have star-trek-like communicators, but the mental flexibility won't be wasted.
I'm not sure what will happen with higher studies, my kids are small. Maybe they'll study something and by the end of university there won't be a job market for it. But that could always happen, and some paths always had more career opportunities or less.
Beyond education, I try to save some money (invest in some global index fund) and hopefully that will help. I was always going to do that anyway, it just feels a bit more necessary now.
Agree, even if AI does most of the things, we can't stop learning, otherwise our mind will become totally dependant on machines even for processing.
It’s just another “don’t look up” issue.
We’ve known about global warming for years and ignored it. People know and still buy bigger cars every year.
Pick up trucks are so huge now you can’t see the child you’re about to run over and they sell like hot cakes.
In surveys truck owners say they only care about occupant safety. They know about the issue for pedestrians, they just don’t care.
Same with shifting industrial production and jobs to China. We know these things are problems for the next generation. When it comes to purchases people don’t care.
Why would AI be any different?
Yup, like the Easter Islanders, what were they thinking when they cut down the last tree?
I think this idea is thought to be a gross oversimplification https://theconversation.com/the-truth-about-easter-island-a-...
I wouldn’t mind a society in which I don’t have to work to live happily and comfortably.
AI will be used for total surveillance in the first place. So totalitarian governments, welcome on in
If everyone’s out of a job, the world will figure it out
Ah yea, everyone will suddenly see their socialist side and all will be well...
Wouldn't it be ironic if AI is the best way to manage a socialist society and they start building it on their own.
Maybe they will maybe they won’t but the solution definitely isn’t trying to block something inevitable and frankly exciting.
It will be like Zardoz.
This is a perennial question
Scenario 1:
The future technology will be capable of handling much of current work, but we'll invent new forms of work, with more stress and higher salaries.
Salaries for people in professions that couldn't be replaced will also go up to match, making bespoke work even more expensive.
Scenario 2:
We let machines do all the work and declare a communist utopia. (Bonus: we give them names that are low in gravitas)
So far, scenario 2 hasn't happened yet, but you never know.
The wealthy owners of tech companies and other businesses will keep maximizing profits, just as capitalism demands. I think my kids will be learning skilled trades instead. AI will never replace builders or electricians.
a) it's not twenty years from now, it's much less than that.
b) you cannot prevent that future, because the incentives are huge and enforcement is extremely hard, at all levels, from the superpowers to the individuals.
c) besides, imagine a world where most jobs are still being done by paid humans, all knowing that their work could be done much better and cheaper by a machine. Basically a world where your daily labour isn't really necessary but just a proof-of-work to get a monthly salary. Isn't that awful? I would rather take a pay cut on my last salary and use my time in a different way.
d) how will they make ends meet? Nobody knows. It might be a combination of everything being much cheaper and/or heavily subsidized, and some form of basic income.
I'm not worried, because the kids keep getting more handouts up front than our generation(s).
Remember, young adults - student loan relief was socialism as we hand out hundreds and thousands of Trump Accounts across the nation for the same thing to the next generation.
anyone who looks at the growing fascism in American and across the world isn't worried about "AI"
such a weird self centered bullshit.